ISNE Poll Predicts SC-01

Info Strategy Northeast (ISNE), the polling firm for Knight Takes Rook, accurately predicted Republican voter sentiment in the SC-01 primary. The primary saw the incumbent, Congresswoman Nancy Mace, defeat her challenger, Katie Arrington, by a 53-45 margin.

At the South Carolina 1st congressional district debate, hosted by the Charleston County Republican Party on May 23, KTR managing partner Austin Stone was invited to serve as a question panelist.  The debate was widely televised and viewed as one of the most high-profile congressional primaries in the 2022 election cycle. KTR followed up this debate by partnering with ISNE to poll Republican primary voters in the district.

From May 26-27, ISNE polled 1,135 very likely Republican primary voters by sending SMS and IVR surveys to cell and landline phones, respectively. Using proprietary data modeling of 2022 primary voter turnout, the ISNE poll found that in a head-to-head race, Mace commanded 43.9% of the vote, with Arrington capturing 38.5%. This 5.4-percentage point margin was dwarfed by the 17.6% of voters who remain undecided. The poll’s margin of error was 3 points.

Prominent conservative pollster Richard Baris of The People’s Pundit praised the authenticity of the ISNE poll, comparing it with polls by Trafalgar and Basswood that showed much wider gaps between Mace and Arrington. “I wouldn’t dismiss this poll,” he remarked. “I really wouldn’t. There are things in it that make sense to me, and I would not dismiss it.”

ISNE’s poll presented further evidence for a notable divergence between male and female voters in Republican primaries. Among men, Mace leads 45.6%-36.2%, yet she holds only a 41.9%-41.3% lead among women, a statistical tie. Additionally, the poll shows divides between different age groups, with Mace holding greater than 8-point leads among the 35-54 and 65+ groups, but trailing 44.2%-39.3% among the 55-64 group. The incumbent leads 42.3%-38.5% among voters ages 18-34.

“The race was unpredictable to the very end,” said KTR strategist Ryder Selmi. “There was a large contingency of disproportionately female, baby boomer-aged voters who the AI identified as hardcore America First supporters, along with many undecideds.” ISNE’s poll predicted this dynamic and accurately measured the state of the race.

KTR and ISNE know that reliable and routine polling is a necessity in the political world. As Baris pointed out, problematic polling in previous cycles has created suppression and confusion about key races. “Both internal and public polling have suffered from structural bias,” Selmi said. “Because polls are momentary snapshots of races, a campaign needs regular and consistent polling to understand where it’s truly headed.”

For more information about how ISNE’s polling capability can serve your political or issue campaign, please email KTR at press@ktr.agency.