ISNE Poll Shows Close Race in OH-9

On June 28-29, Knight Takes Rook partnered with Info Strategy Northeast to conduct a poll of Ohio’s 9th congressional district. After the state’s GOP-led redistricting efforts, OH-9 is host to a newly-competitive race between Democrat incumbent Marcy Kaptur and Republican challenger J.R. Majewski. The May 3 Republican primary saw Majewski, who positioned himself as an America First outsider, defeat state representative Craig Riedel and state senator Theresa Gavarone.

The KTR/Info Strategy Northeast poll asked respondents two separate questions. First, “who do you plan to vote for in November’s general election: Democrat Marcy Kaptur or Republican JR Majewski?” Second, “since the 2016 election, would you say you have become more liberal, more conservative, or stayed the same?” Info Strategy Northeast has received recognition for SMS/IVR polls following a similar methodology from polling experts like Rich Baris (“the People’s Pundit”).

After adjusting for oversampled respondents, the poll of 1,254 likely voters showed Kaptur leading Majewski by a margin of 47.0%-41.8%, with the remaining 11.2% undecided (MOE +/- 2.0%). Additionally, the poll showed that 29.7% of voters consider themselves to have become more conservative since 2016, with 21.2% considering themselves to have become more liberal and 41.9% reporting that they’ve stayed the same.

“At this point in the race, these numbers reflect a diminished advantage for Kaptur, who is a long-time incumbent,” said Ryder Selmi of Info Strategy Northeast. “As Majewski enters general election mode, he will start to narrow the gap, which is likely due to name recognition right now. I’d look for this race to tighten much more come November.”

The dual effects of redistricting and Republican 2022 momentum have placed Kaptur’s seat in play for the first time in her 40-year political career. And Republicans are bullish on Majewski’s blue-collar background and outsider credentials playing well in the district.

“Both in the data and on the ground, we’re seeing Rust Belt-region voters becoming not only more conservative, but also more fed up with establishment politicians,” said Selmi.  “They want someone who challenges the status quo, who really puts America First.  Majewski comes off as that type of guy.”

For more information about ISNE’s methodology or how our polling capability can serve your political or issue campaign, please reach out to KTR at press@ktr.agency.